Tropical Cyclone Intensity in Vertical Wind Shear

Abstract The study of the impact of global warming on tropical cyclone (TC) intensity is subject to uncertainty in historical datasets, especially in the western North Pacific (WNP) basin, where conflicting results have been found with the TC datasets archived in different organizations. In this study the basinwide TC intensity in the WNP basin is derived dynamically with a TC intensity model, based on the track data from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) of Tokyo, and the Shanghai Typhoon Institute (STI) of the China Meteorological Administration. The dynamically derived TC intensity is compared to the three datasets and used to investigate trends in TC intensity. The associated contributions of changes in SST, vertical wind shear, and prevailing tracks are also examined. The evolution of the basinwide TC intensity in the JTWC best-track dataset can be generally reproduced over the period 1975–2007. Dynamically derived data based on the JTWC, RSMC, and STI track datasets all show an increasing trend in the peak intensity and frequency of intense typhoons, mainly because of the combined effect of changes in SST and vertical wind shear. This study suggests that the increasing intensity trend in the JTWC dataset is real, but that it may be overestimated. In contrast, the TC intensity trends in the RSMC and STI intensity datasets are dynamically inconsistent. Numerical simulations also suggest that the frequency of intense typhoons is more sensitive to changes in SST and vertical wind shear than the peak and average intensities defined in previous studies.

Download Full-text

Modelling the effects of land-sea contrast on tropical cyclone precipitation under environmental vertical wind shear

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society ◽

10.1002/qj.2359 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 141 (687) ◽

pp. 396-412 ◽

Cited By ~ 13

Author(s):

Yubin Li ◽

Kevin K. W. Cheung ◽

Johnny C. L. Chan

Keyword(s):

Tropical Cyclone ◽

Wind Shear ◽

Vertical Wind Shear ◽

Vertical Wind

Download Full-text

The Influence of Uniform Flow on Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change

Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences ◽

10.1175/jas3531.1 ◽

2005 ◽

Vol 62 (9) ◽

pp. 3193-3212 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

Joey H. Y. Kwok ◽

Johnny C. L. Chan

Keyword(s):

Tropical Cyclone ◽

Wind Shear ◽

Mesoscale Model ◽

Vertical Wind Shear ◽

Lower Troposphere ◽

Vertical Motion ◽

Uniform Flow ◽

Vertical Wind ◽

Intensity Change ◽

Westerly Flow

Abstract The influence of a uniform flow on the structural changes of a tropical cyclone (TC) is investigated using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5). Idealized experiments are performed on either an f plane or a β plane. A strong uniform flow on an f plane results in a weaker vortex due to the development of a vertical wind shear induced by the asymmetric vertical motion and a rotation of upper-level anticyclone. The asymmetric vertical motion also reduces the secondary circulation of the vortex. On a β plane with no flow, a broad anticyclonic flow is found to the southeast of the vortex, which expands with time. Similar to the f-plane case, asymmetric vertical motion and vertical wind shear are also found. This beta-induced shear weakens the no-flow case significantly relative to that on an f plane. When a uniform flow is imposed on a β plane, an easterly flow produces a stronger asymmetry whereas a westerly flow reduces it. In addition, an easterly uniform flow tends to strengthen the beta-induced shear whereas a westerly flow appears to reduce it by altering the magnitude and direction of the shear vector. As a result, a westerly flow enhances TC development while an easterly flow reduces it. The vortex tilt and midlevel warming found in this study agree with the previous investigations of vertical wind shear. A strong uniform flow with a constant f results in a tilted and deformed potential vorticity at the upper levels. For a variable f, such tilting is more pronounced for a vortex in an easterly flow, while a westerly flow reduces the tilt. In addition, the vortex tilt appears to be related to the midlevel warming such that the warm core in the lower troposphere cannot extent upward, which leads to the subsequent weakening of the TC.

Download Full-text

Effect of TC–Trough Interaction on the Intensity Change of Two Typhoons

Weather and Forecasting ◽

10.1175/waf836.1 ◽

2005 ◽

Vol 20 (2) ◽

pp. 199-211 ◽

Cited By ~ 16

Author(s):

Hui Yu ◽

H. Joe Kwon

Keyword(s):

Tropical Cyclone ◽

Wind Shear ◽

Large Scale ◽

Vertical Wind Shear ◽

Vertical Wind ◽

Intensity Change ◽

Eddy Flux ◽

Upper Troposphere ◽

Shallow Layer ◽

Upper Level

Abstract Using large-scale analyses, the effect of tropical cyclone–trough interaction on tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change is readdressed by studying the evolution of upper-level eddy flux convergence (EFC) of angular momentum and vertical wind shear for two TCs in the western North Pacific [Typhoons Prapiroon (2000) and Olga (1999)]. Major findings include the following: 1) In spite of decreasing SST, the cyclonic inflow associated with a midlatitude trough should have played an important role in Prapiroon’s intensification to its maximum intensity and the maintenance after recurvature through an increase in EFC. The accompanied large vertical wind shear is concentrated in a shallow layer in the upper troposphere. 2) Although Olga also recurved downstream of a midlatitude trough, its development and maintenance were not strongly influenced by the trough. A TC could maintain itself in an environment with or without upper-level eddy momentum forcing. 3) Both TCs started to decay over cold SST in a large EFC and vertical wind shear environment imposed by the trough. 4) Uncertainty of input adds difficulties in quantitative TC intensity forecasting.

Download Full-text

A Balanced Tropical Cyclone Test Case for AGCMs with Background Vertical Wind Shear

Monthly Weather Review ◽

10.1175/mwr-d-14-00366.1 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 143 (5) ◽

pp. 1762-1781 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Fei He ◽

Derek J. Posselt ◽

Colin M. Zarzycki ◽

Christiane Jablonowski

Keyword(s):

Tropical Cyclone ◽

Wind Shear ◽

General Circulation ◽

Vertical Wind Shear ◽

Circulation Model ◽

Background Field ◽

Vertical Wind ◽

Intensity Change ◽

Test Case ◽

The Impact

Abstract This paper presents a balanced tropical cyclone (TC) test case designed to improve current understanding of how atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) configurations affect simulated TC development and behavior. It consists of an analytic initial condition comprising two independently balanced components. The first provides a vortical TC seed, while the second adds a planetary-scale zonal flow with height-dependent velocity and imposes background vertical wind shear (VWS) on the TC seed. The environmental flow satisfies the steady-state hydrostatic primitive equations in spherical coordinates and is in balance with other background field variables (e.g., temperature, surface geopotential). The evolution of idealized TCs in the test case framework is illustrated in 10-day simulations performed with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5.1.1 (CAM 5.1.1). Environmental wind profiles with different magnitudes, directions, and vertical inflection points are applied to ensure that the technique is robust to changes in the VWS characteristics. The well-known shear-induced intensity change and structural asymmetry in tropical cyclones are well captured. Sensitivity of TC evolution to small perturbations in the initial vortex is also quantitatively addressed to validate the numerical robustness of the technique. It is concluded that the enhanced TC test case can be used to evaluate the impact of model choice (e.g., resolution, physical parameterizations) on the simulation and representation of TC-like vortices in AGCMs.

Download Full-text